The Mubarak Leadership and Future of Democracy in Egypt by Dr. Alaa Al-Din Arafat

By Dr. Alaa Al-Din Arafat

A few issues appear to move on goodbye that we take them without any consideration. Egypt’s Mubarak regime has that undying caliber, yet honestly it nears the tip. Presidential elections are scheduled for 2011, if now not faster, and the elderly Mubarak will most likely step apart. His son Gamal waits within the wings, likely by myself. however the regime comes less than many pressures, either international and family, to carry democratic reforms and unfastened and reasonable elections to Egypt. A hereditary succession will be hugely suspect, and in all likelihood destabilizing and illegitimate. additionally, as a key heart East energy and the most important US best friend, Egypt’s move of strength has profound implications for the sector and has to be controlled with the maximum care. in the meantime, the specter of an Islamist regime lurks within the heritage, because the Muslim Brotherhood has completed a grudging parity with the weakening Mubarak regime considering 2005. the rush for democratic reform is therefore tempered through the perceived desire for balance. in the meantime, the Egyptian humans lengthy for democracy, and the concept of a Gamal Mubarak regime stretching throughout extra a long time is crushing to think about.

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Therefore, the party leaders manage the Electoral College in such a way that it is essentially meaningless. com - licensed to Taiwan eBook Consortium - PalgraveConnect - 2011-03-01 30 Addicted to Hegemony 31 The committee adopted a very radical change and gave youth a greater role in NDP politics. This tactic favored Gamal Mubarak over Al-Shazli, Wali, and their henchmen and led to the middle- and lowranking elites under the Big Four’s control being replaced with people loyal to the Big Eight faction.

However, this systematic purging did not affect the party’s efficiency. Furthermore, it did not indicate that Gamal and his neoconservatives destroyed Al-Shazli’s inf luence or that the old guards would leave their castle easily. Al-Shazli and his faction’s inf luence lay in their iron grip over NDP MPs and their solid ability to ensure the two-thirds majority for Mubarak. Similarly, Wali could be trusted to attract landed gentry to the NDP. The Committee realized that the party needed new ways to select its parliamentary list and so began to develop an Electoral College system.

Mubarak has exploited their organizational experience and their patron-client networks, especially in the rural areas. Generally, one can consider these politicians political technocrats or functionaries, with striking examples being Kamal Al-Shazli, Al-Sharif, and Wali. com - licensed to Taiwan eBook Consortium - PalgraveConnect - 2011-03-01 38 39 mid-1990s such as Ahmed ‘Azz, Mohamed Abu Al-‘Anein, Hossam Al-Badrawi, and the like. Several interrelated reasons explain this. The new electoral system that Mubarak’s regime espoused encouraged businesspeople to stand for election since they did not require any political affiliation, followers, or grassroots organizations.

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