Forecasting, Warning and Responding to Transnational Risks by Chiara de Franco, C. Meyer

By Chiara de Franco, C. Meyer

Assembling a excessive profile crew of students and practitioners, this e-book investigates the interaction of forecasting; warnings approximately, and responses to, identified and unknown transnational dangers. It demanding situations traditional bills of 'failures' of caution and preventive coverage in either the tutorial literature and public debate.

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Forecasting, Warning and Responding to Transnational Risks

Assembling a excessive profile crew of students and practitioners, this booklet investigates the interaction of forecasting; warnings approximately, and responses to, identified and unknown transnational hazards. It demanding situations traditional money owed of 'failures' of caution and preventive coverage in either the tutorial literature and public debate.

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The only way to is to approximate, to try to identify from the distance of the present the larger features and archipelagos that stick out from the coastline and about which mariners seeking to navigate safely towards the future should certainly be warned. A reasonable stab at forecasting can be made by assuming that tomorrow will be like today, only more so, as obvious trends are assumed to continue on into the future. That inductive approach gives good results most of the time, but when the unexpected intervenes it can lead governments dramatically astray.

How we view information is as important as what the information reveals independently of interpretation. Lock K. ' Oohnson, 2009: 35). This is because policy makers and military commanders believe that intelligence is a matter of reporting information and then acting upon it. It is an operational skill, rather than a theory based on a field of knowledge. This may be why intelligence work is typically associated with the term 'tradecraft'. 'Tradecraft' lies between training (typical of an apprentice, and exhibited by vocations), and the current and technical foundation of knowledge needed by professional education (typical of most professions).

Warren Fishbein makes the case for enhancing the resilience and mental preparedness of government given that it would be unrealistic to expect early warning always to be available and preventive action to work (Chapter IS). Finally, Chiara de Franco and Christoph Meyer draw on the insights from the previous chapters to theorise which variables tend to help or hinder the identification, communication, and response to different types of transnational threats. In a second step, they attempt to draw on these analytical insights to formulate four arguments about how warningresponse dynamics can be improved by dealing better with uncertainty, enhancing international collaboration, better scrutiny of international risk management and, finally, combining prevention and resilience.

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