Demographic Toxicity: Methods in Ecological R Assessment by H. Resit Akcakaya, John D. Stark, Todd S. Bridges

By H. Resit Akcakaya, John D. Stark, Todd S. Bridges

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Each x,y-point on the curve can be interpreted as “there is a Y% probability that the stage abundance will exceed X at least once during the simulation duration,” where Y% is the probability from the y-axis and X is the threshold abundance from the x-axis. Dashed lines represent 95% confidence intervals. The shade of the curves indicates stochasticity level: light gray, no stochasticity; dark gray, stochasticity in pupal survival (sP) only; black, stochasticity in both pupal survival and reproduction (fA).

Level 2, in both pupal survival and reproduction). 2). 04). This pattern is similar for both the adult and larval stages. The toxicant treatment consistently reduces the explosion risk for both adults and larvae, as could be expected from the reduction in vital rates. 001 in two of three cases). 001). 4. 001 in five of six cases). Stochasticity generally increases extinction risk for both stages, as could be expected. 2 in two of four cases). 011 in two cases). Extinction risks in the AF versus PS models are affected differently by the two levels of stochasticity, in a similar way as described above for explosion risks.

R. 1980. A model of Nicholson’s blowflies cycles and its relevance to predation theory. Journal of Animal Ecology 49: 1005–1010. TOXICANTS AND DEMOGRAPHY OF PEST POPULATIONS 39 Rognes, K. 1991. Blowflies (Diptera, Calliphoridae) of Fennoscandia and Denmark. In Fauna entomologica Scandinavica. Brill, Leiden. , and Smith, R. H. 1993. Effects of population density and cadmium toxicity on growth and survival of blowflies. Environmental Pollution 81: 41–45. Smith, R. , Bell, E. , Ellner, S. , and Forrest, M.

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